(crossposted at The Old Eighteen)
Gallup has released a series of polls over the last few days (most of which I'm sure have already been mentioned on some level here at Daily Kos) that taken together add some very interesting context to both the ongoing fight for the Democratic nomination and the general election this fall.
A poll of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents indicates that the idea of a dream ticket with both Obama and Clinton seems to appeal mostly to Clinton supporters. Overall, 58% of respondents said that they would like to see Barack Obama as the VP nominee if Hillary wins the nomination, while only 42% said that they would like to see Hillary as Obama's running mate. The reason for the gap? Obama supporters don't seem to like the idea of having Hillary on the ticket. Only 29% of Obamaphiles said that they would want Hillary on the ticket if he wins the presidential nomination, while 53% of Clintonistas said that they would want Obama as Clinton's running mate. For contrast, 62% of Obama supporters and 59% of Clinton supporters would favor their candidate as the VP nominee if their candidate's opponent wins the presidential nomination.
Meanwhile, a separate tracking poll indicates that both candidates would lose votes from the other's supporters in the general election. The problem is more pronounced for Obama than it is for Clinton - only 59% of Clinton supporters say that they would vote for Obama in the general election against John McCain, while 28% said that they would vote for McCain, with 13% undecided or not responding. This contrasts with 72% of Obama supporters who said that they would vote for Clinton in the general election to 19% who would vote for McCain and another 19% undecided or not responding. This flies in the face of one of the common criticisms leveled at Obama by the Clinton camp, that his supporters are less likely to vote Democratic if Obama's name is not on the ticket.
What explains the gap in crossover support between Obama and Clinton? Well, it appears that race, gender, and age all play a role. Gallup's ongoing tracking poll shows both Democrats in a virtual tie with McCain in head-to-head matchups, but the numbers play out differently when they're broken down by demographic groups. Gallup's tracking poll indicates that among African-Americans, Obama has a clear advantage, taking 90% of the black vote compared with only 79% for Hillary. Clinton does slightly better with Hispanics, taking 59% of the Hispanic vote to 54% for Obama. But McCain performs surprisingly well with Hispanics against both Dems, carrying 37% of the Hispanic vote against Obama and 36% against Clinton. Almost all of the 5% difference between Obama and Clinton among Hispanics is undecided, so the gap between the two in this group is probably due mostly to Clinton being more of a known commodity. But Democrats should be very concerned about McCain's strong performance with Hispanic voters, and his flip-flops on the immigration issue should be highlighted during the general election campaign.
A bigger point of concern for Barack Obama is his performance among white voters, particularly white Democrats. Clinton takes 87% of white liberal Dems to Obama's 82%, but the gap is even more pronounced among white moderate Democrats (75% to 66%) and especially white conservative Democrats (68% to 50%). Meanwhile, Obama outdraws Clinton among independent and Republican voters of all races, taking 25% of independents to Clinton's 20%, 17% of moderate Republicans to Clinton's 13%, and 5% of conservative Republicans to Hillary's 3%. Independent voters are another point of concern for both Dems: McCain outdraws both candidates among indies at this point, taking 47% and 52% against Obama and Clinton respectively. However, there is a large number of independents (28%) not expressing a preference at this point, so the Dems have a lot of room for improvement.
Obama and Clinton also perform differently with different age and gender groups. The gender gap is less pronounced: both Dems perform similarly among men (Obama takes 41% of males, Clinton takes 40%, and both lose this group to McCain), but there is a slight difference among women: both Dems outperform McCain in this category, but Clinton takes 51% of the female vote to only 47% for Obama. But in looking at age, there is a very definite generation gap between the two Democratic contenders, as well as between both Dems and the Republican nominee. Among voters aged 30-49 & 50-64, both candidates perform similarly against McCain and effectively break even with him in these groups. But there is a clear preference for McCain among voters 65 and older, compared with an even bigger preference for both Dems against McCain among voters 18-29. These preferences are more pronounced depending on which Dem is running against McCain: Obama outperforms Clinton among 18-29s (57%-52%), while Clinton does better with the 65+ group (42%-35%). The numbers get even more interesting when broken down by both age and gender: both Dems perform similarly among men over 50 and women 18-49, but Obama clearly outperforms Clinton among men 18-49 (45%-40%) while Clinton does better than Obama among women 50 and older (48%-42%).
But perhaps the most interesting poll of the group, and potentially the most problematic for Democrats, is the one that asked voters which of the three remaining candidates they least wanted to see elected president, and why. Overall, 40% of respondents ranked John McCain as their least favorite candidate, followed by 36% for Hillary Clinton and only 20% for Barack Obama. Doing the math, that's 40% for the Republican nominee and a combined 56% for his Democratic challengers. Not good. Broken down by party affiliation, Clinton is the least popular candidate among 60% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats, while Obama is the least favorite among only 34% of Republicans and 9% of Dems. McCain is the least popular among only 3% of Republicans and 71% of Dems. Doing the math again, only 3% of Repubs picked their own guy as the person they least wanted to see elected as president, while a whopping 25% of Democrats picked one of their own remaining candidates, demonstrating that whoever wins the Democratic nomination is going to have some work to do after the nomination is secured.
When asked why they don't like their least favorite candidate, a clear pattern of change vs. experience emerges. Among those who picked McCain as their least favorite, 27% percent cited his support for the war in Iraq, 25% said that he was too much like President Bush and/or said that we need a change, and 23% cited the fact that he is a Republican (note: respondents were allowed to give multiple reasons for disliking a candidate). For Clinton, 18% said that they didn't want former President Bill Clinton back in the White House, 16% said that they personally dislike her, and 11% cited her past baggage and association with scandal. Meanwhile, 39% of those who picked Obama as their least favorite and 12% of those who picked Clinton cited inexperience. The perceived experience gap is clearly Obama's biggest problem here, but questions about his religious beliefs are also significant: 12% of those who picked Obama cited the belief that he is a Muslim, and 8% said that they dislike his religious affiliation (though whether this stems from the belief that he's a Muslim or his association with Jeremiah Wright is unclear). There is also apparently a trust gap between McCain and his Democratic challengers: only 3% of those who picked McCain cited lack of trust, while it was cited by 15% of those who picked Obama and 24% of those who picked Clinton.
So what does all this tell us? My overall reading is that for McCain, his problems are largely derived from the fact that he's a Republican, a vocal supporter of the war in Iraq, and is perceived as being too much like Bush. For the Democrats, their issues are more tied to identity politics: Obama's problems appear to be mostly with older white voters, while Hillary's problems appear to be with black voters and younger men. How this all plays out after the nomination is settled remains to be seen, but it seems that McCain's problem areas will remain static, and the problem areas for both Dems will continue to become more aggravated, as long as the Dems are fighting each other. We need this nomination fight to end as soon as possible, so Democrats can unite to hit McCain in his weak spots rather than targeting each other's.